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Exciting Opportunities for Mobile 3D?

3D stereo anaglyph picture, use red blue glasses to view anaglyphic photo

For the last year or so, 3D has been one of technology’s hottest topics, with the success of 3D movies paving the way for TV manufacturers, to the extent that two in five UK adults now express an interest in buying a 3D screen for their home. But what is the opportunity for mobile device manufacturers?

There has certainly been a lot of market activity (e.g. Sharp’s unveiling of a 3D mobile phone display) in anticipation of consumer demand, but will public enthusiasm migrate to mobile phone devices?

A recent GfK Technology survey, found that 12% of mobile phone users were interested in 3D photos and 8% were interested in 3D gaming. It is likely that the latter and any apps that embrace Augmented Reality or which offer the opportunity to enhance user generated content are going to drive most interest.

However, right now it’s a difficult call as to whether 3D on mobile will really drive the market. It’s up to the handset manufacturers to ensure the execution of the technology lives up to the hype.

To read a fuller article on this topic by Colin Strong, managing director of GfK Business & Technology, click here.

RESEARCH NOTES:

GfK NOP Technology conducted a survey among 996 UK adults in June 2010. The interviews were conducted online and are representative on UK adults who have access to the internet.

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3dstereopics
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Recovery in full swing for consumer technology markets… and it’s expected to last

Growth returns to Western European consumer technology markets in Q1 2010. GfK TEMAX data shows that consumers are more willing to upgrade their home technology as well as experiment with new smartphone mobile technology.

GfK TEMAX data shows that, overall, the consumer technology market recorded 2.7% growth in Q1 this year compared to Q1 in 2009. Key technology sectors have recorded year on year growth, including Telecommunications (+4.9%), Information Technology (+3.6%) and Consumer Electronics (+0.7%) in Q1 2010. Smartphones, Windows 7 and LCD TVs are all driving factors of growth in their respective sectors.

Smartphones continue to drive growth in the Telecommunications market

While the telecommunications market declined by -3.2% in the fourth quarter 2009, the first quarter of 2010 returned to growth with a +4.9% increase year on year.

Growth in the telecommunications sector is being driven by the increasing demand for Smartphones as they make up 40% of the total sales value. In Western Europe one in five handsets sold runs a mobile operating system and uses a touchscreen or QWERTY keyboard as an input interface. Mobile Operating Systems include Symbian 60, Windows Mobile, Linux, Android, iPhone OS, RIM and Palm WebOS.

Internet access has become “ubiquitous” which is driving interest in mobile services to a much broader audience. Mobile email is becoming the alternative to the well perceived SMS services and navigation software often come pre-installed on the devices. Social networks have become the most popular apps on smartphones, adding more relevance and immediacy the PC at home. Furthermore, many of these mobile operating systems are also being used on netbooks and tablet PCs, which are being sold through network operators with 3G connectivity.

With a wide range of innovative, new smartphones showcased at the Mobile World Congress earlier this year and the recent interest in tablet PCs, growth in the telecommunications sector is likely to continue throughout 2010.

Windows 7 ignites upgrade cycle in the Information Technology market

The Information Technology market, the second biggest market behind Consumer Electronics in Western Europe, grew by +3.6% in Q1 2010 and is now worth EUR 11.5 billion.

Consumer demand is focusing on Mobile Computers, but also on accessories, peripherals, software and especially All-In-One-Desktop Computers too. The successful introduction of Windows 7 initiated a new replacement and upgrade cycle. Lots of consumers leapfrogged Vista, staying with existing installed hardware, software and even accessories and peripherals. Overlooking Vista led to many installed products being outdated upon the arrival of Windows 7, thus consumers were “ready” for an update. As consumers are becoming more aware, they are looking for a wide product range. As a consequence expectations for 2010 are positive following this trend in consumers’ attitude.

Strong demand for LCD-TV’s returns growth back to the Consumer Electronics market

Consumer Electronics, the largest technology sector in Western Europe, recorded year on year growth of +0.7% in Q1 2010. The impact of the recession on the Consumer Electronics markets no longer exists as demand for LCD TVs strengthens for three key reasons.

Firstly, most countries in Europe have a huge consumer demand for replacing the old CRT-TV with a new flat LCD-TV. Of course, the World Cup in South Africa is supporting this trend and quickening the desire to replace old TV sets. With the stabilisation of prices over the past months, the revenue situation also saw an improvement.

Secondly, the digital switch over is another contributing factor to the growth in this market. With analogue TV being phased out, new set top boxes or even a new TV set are required to receive digital TV channels. This development is most strongly observed in Spain (+16%), Italy (+6.9%) and Portugal (+4.4%). Home entertainment in general gained importance with better HiFi products or “TV ecosystems” becoming increasingly popular. Positive and substantial impulses were seen from Blu-ray, Home Theatre Sets, Loudspeaker Sets and of course High Definition set top boxes.

Finally, consumers’ willingness to invest in flat screens, HD and better sound systems for the home, is a clear sign of the “homing-trend”. This willingness-to-invest combined with the anticipated impact of the World Cup gives reason to expect an even better second quarter 2010.

2010 consumer technology outlook is positive

In addition, GfK TEMAX covers other consumer technology sectors in Western Europe and all but one experienced growth. Other technology sectors that grew in Q1 were Photography (+2.7%), Major Domestic Appliances (+ 4.1%) and Small Domestic Appliances (+6.5%), but Office Equipment and Consumables sector contracted -1.2% compared to the same period in 2009.

These positive growth figures in Q1 are likely to continue throughout the year and Michael Sauter, head of GfK TEMAX, comments that:

“The first signs for April are looking positive. Our data show the Technical Consumer Goods market continuing on the road to recovery, indicating more growth to come in Q2-2010.”

Check back in July for the latest data and analysis from GfK TEMAX

ABOUT GfK TEMAX

GfK TEMAX® is an index developed by GfK Retail and Technology to track the consumer durables markets. GfK TEMAX® is published internationally. The findings are based on surveys carried out by the retail panel of GfK Retail and Technology. The retail panel comprises data from over 340,000 retail outlets worldwide. Click here for all reports and press releases

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Apple sell 2 million iPads but competition will be fierce in 2010

Expect to see a vibrant and competitive tablet PC market over the next 12 months as Apple sell 2 million iPads globally in less than 60 days.

Apple certainly knows how to get the media and public excited about their latest creation, the iPad. Everyone is talking about the iPad and tablet PCs and this is not just tech press but also mainstream news bulletins. Apple is extremely proficient at sparking people’s imagination around all the creative ways their products, iPhone and iPad, can be used. Apple’s famous strapline for the iPhone was “there’s an app for that” which creates a powerful perception that anything is possible, and the same applies on the iPad.

Whilst Apple have created an enormous buzz around tablet PCs and educated the market as to all the potential uses, competitors will be launching rival products to compete with Apple’s iPad. In the next 12 months we’ll see a plethora of tablet PCs launched from a number of different manufacturers, running a number of different operating systems, from Microsoft Windows to various open source based platforms such as Android and MeeGo (Intel and Nokia joint venture).

The tablet PC market will be a place where laptop manufacturers and smartphone providers really start to compete head to head. At the smartphone end of the market expect to see Nokia, Blackberry and HP (running newly acquired Palm OS) launch alternatives to the iPad. At the PC end of the market the first entrant will be the Dell Streak which will quickly follow the iPad launch in mid June. Asus and Lenovo also have tablet PCs in the pipeline, which will most likely be based on Windows 7. Google won’t be left behind and will launch either an Android or even a Chrome OS based tablet during the course of the year.

With all the different tablet PCs, consumers will be spoilt for choice. Looking at the main three operating systems, Apple mobile OS, Windows 7 and Android/Chrome OS, each company will take a slightly different approach which will add great variety for consumers. For example, Google will be pushing for more of a cloud-based solution, Apple will be heavily app and services based while Microsoft will be evolving their traditional Windows based platform that everyone is familiar with.

As tablet PCs become more popular the netbook market will take a further nosedive. In July 2009 the netbook market grew an astonishing 641% but in April 2010 it grew only 5%, a remarkable fall from grace.

So if netbooks fall victim to tablet PCs, who will benefit?

Well, the iPad was launched in the UK last Friday and today Apple announced that they have sold more than 2 million units globally. According to GfK NOP Technology research Apple are expected to sell up to 2 million 1^st generation iPads in the UK if they can meet high levels of early demand. The pricing of the iPad varies and is available as Wi-Fi only models as well as 3G devices from the major UK operators. Apple will almost certainly occupy the more premium end of the market, with competitor tablets likely to be more cost effective. However, price is not the only determining factor for success. The provider who can package up content and services that make tablets easy to use and relevant to the consumer will be the ones who come out on top.

Apple has proven credentials when it comes to delivering multi-media services and apps to their users. They’re not standing still either as Apple launched the iBookstore on the iPad which has already sold 1.5 million ebooks in the US. But even in the services market, competition is strong. Expect to see compelling service offerings from Google, Nokia, RIM (Blackberry) and HP Palm, all of which produce excellent hardware and are quickly improving their services and access to vibrant market places for 3^rd party apps.

If competitor tablets can get their service offerings right we can expect to see a very competitive and exciting tablet market in the next 12 months.

The Green Technology Revolution

Smartphone technology paves the way for the market to adopt greener approaches. Encouraging greater use of mobile services helps to limit the need for multiple devices, extend the product lifecycle and offer consumers more ways of being green.

“Technology companies can never be green”. A casual comment dropped into conversation when discussing the idea of ‘green technology’. Of course, ‘green technology’ already exists in the form of multi-million pound, global scale projects that help reclaim water, produce renewable energy and generally help meet global climate change targets. Green technology, as it stands, does not mean the ‘greening’ of technology.

Making technology a little greener would mean creating a shift in the way that technology products – consumer ones that is – are used and consumed. My argument is that the first steps to any greening of the consumer technology space would be lengthening the product lifecycle. Today, the very nature of the market tells a tale of rapid uptake and obsoleteness; parts break or newer, quicker, more innovative versions come along leaving many devices left for good old Mr. Landfill. Looking at the wider consumer landscape, which is successfully adopting greener behaviour, it seems like the right time for technology to adapt.

Recent data from a GfK NOP Technology survey amongst a representative sample of UK adults* which asked about attitudes towards everyday technology products like MP3s, PCs and mobile phones revealed that obsoleteness is not a desirable feature. When it comes to mobile phones specifically, more than half (56%) say that they are more interested in keeping their device for longer. This offers an opportunity for the rapidly growing mobile services industry. More on this later.

The finding is reflective of wider concerns about the environment and suggests a growing demand for a greener technology market. In particular, 41% of consumers want to know more about what their mobile phone brand or network is doing to be more green in order to help make decisions about future purchases. Consumers now have more choices than ever before to help ‘being green’ more easy, but whether technology products can add to the offering remains to be seen.

Enter the smartphone, which according to Gartner, Inc saw sales growth of 48.7% across the global market in the first quarter of 2010. Smartphones bring mobile services to the lives of consumers which Mobile Marketer estimate will be worth $1 trillion by 2013. Services available through smartphone technology are already a valuable commodity for global technology companies including Apple, Microsoft, Google and Nokia who, despite raging patent war,s are rolling apps, music, messaging, maps and other everyday ‘services’ the mass market might desire over 3G and wireless networks.

The benefits of mobile services extend beyond helping consumers rely more on their mobile phones. In particular, our research reveals that 40% of consumers are more interested in updating the services they use on their mobile phone than the device itself. This figure is not only music to the ears of software developers, network providers and mobile manufacturers who are diversifying into this services market, but also to consumers looking for more ways of being green. Services can extend the product lifecycle through satisfying a wide variety of consumer needs when it comes to technology. They can be updated and replaced regularly and help transform mobile devices into a highly personalised experience. Not only this, but due to the way that they bring a variety of functions together, e.g. camera, music player, clock, etc, they reduce the need for multiple technology devices. All of which contributes a ’greener’ technology market.

However, mobile services can not only help limit environmental impact of products, they also encourage and enable greener consumer behaviour and offer more choices for a greener lifestyle. Nokia, the world’s leading mobile manufacturer, is helping demonstrate how. Kirsi Sormunen, Vice President of Nokia Environmental Affairs, says that the company is continuously looking at “new ways in which mobile technology can contribute to sustainable development,” as well as “ inviting consumers to the journey towards sustainability.” To support this they have created a series of videos demonstrating and hinting at ways that using a mobile phone with internet access is yet another way of ‘being green’.

The videos show mobile phones helping us to help the environment through reducing travel, browsing the internet and carrying an all-in-one device. Nokia is not new to the move to making technology more green. The company came top in Greenpeace’s guide to consumer electronics earlier in the year. Their progression from making the manufacture of handsets more green to making the relationship between consumers and their devices more green, is an encouraging move for the technology market.

With the rapid uptake of smartphones, according to Gartner Inc figures, 54.3 million units globally are already helping people use their mobile phones to access the internet and services, limiting the need for multiple and separate devices. A green revolution in consumer technology has already begun, particularly where consumers want to keep their mobile devices for longer. Despite the global giants of Google and Apple being the pioneers of smartphone technology, it is companies like Nokia who have already realised the environmental benefits of mobile services who are paving the way for the greening of technology.

IPTV – shall we all forget the set-top boxes and buy internet-enabled TVs?

IPTV is no longer tied to commercial bundles of high speed internet access, television and telephone (triple play), but the success of the technology continues to be dependent upon the strength of the home broadband connection.

The uptake of triple play offerings in the UK is somewhat sluggish compared with the US and other EU markets. However, along with the two established players, Sky (satellite) and Virgin (cable), the adoption of high speed broadband internet connection over recent years has led to the rise of various forms of bundled and unbundled internet protocol television (IPTV) services.

For the purpose of this article, IPTV as a term includes subscriber-based offerings requiring the installation of set-top boxes (eg BT Vision, TalkTalk TV, etc.), but also free or commercial services that offer some sort of live television, time-shifted TV programmes, and video on demand (eg BBC i-Player, ITV Player, Channel 4 on demand (4oD), YouTube, LOVEFILM etc.) relying on other customer-premises equipment (CPE).

With CPEs, aside from the traditional definition (ie a router bundled with an internet connection, a mobile handset as part of a contract with a mobile provider, etc.), it makes sense to include any internet-enabled, end-user equipment that consumers use to view any of the forms of IPTV mentioned previously. As such, recent research* by GfK NOP Technology division indicates that 80% of the UK internet population watch IPTV and are using primarily the following CPEs:

An emerging trend here is the role of the TV set as a CPE device. Further more, isolating the fact that there is a good portion of the population (25%) who use their flat panel TV set to view IPTV, the same research identfies that the top three ways to do so are:

By connecting to a pc/laptop – 38%
Via a game console – 22%
Directly connected to a broadband router – 16%

Interestingly, the list does not include services that rely on a set-top box installation (Virgin is in fourth place – 11%, while BT Vision has only a very small penetration – 2%). In addition, internet-enabled TVs, only available since 2009 in the UK, appear to make an interesting category.

Having seen consumers bypassing the standard triple play offerings in terms of CPEs, the next question is what type of content they choose to watch over internet?

Our research indicates that amongst all people who watch video content over the internet, free IPTV services such as BBC i-Player, YouTube, 4oD and ITV Player, are the highest used, while premium services, like iTunes, Sky TV and Virgin Media fall behind:

In this situation, it is not surprising that triple play offerings (eg Sky and Virgin) are already including, or are starting to include, these popular video on demand services (i.e. BBC i-Player, YouTube, etc.) as part of their offering. Nevertheless, some might question why they should buy into triple play rather than just get an internet enabled TV in order to watch the most popular and free IPTV services such as BBC i-Player?

Leading TV manufacturers are all starting to offer this type of functionality – Panasonic with its VieraCast system, Philips – NetTV, Samsung – internet@tv, Sony – applicast, etc – and are making an effort to incorporate popular IPTV services into their internet widgets. However, the technology relies on the quality of the home broadband connection, without any control over the “last mile”, or guarantee over the quality of service that a commercial triple play provider can offer. This might sound trivial, but our survey also confirms that satisfaction with IPTV when considering connectivity/speed and image resolution is only moderate at 62% and 66% respectively.

Nonetheless, consumers today have increasingly more options to watch IPTV and this can only be a good thing. The challenge should lie with the providers of IPTV services and CPEs to leverage the technological advantages and create new opportunities. Triple play providers should not perceive this evolving nature of IPTV as a threat, but as something that can help boost its uptake in the UK market.

Research Info
*1000 online interviews were conducted by GfK NOP among a UK representative sample of internet users. The fieldwork was conducted in March 2010

The third device: Can the early success of eBook readers continue when faced with the introduction of multifunctional competitor devices?

The mainstream consumer generally opts for a device that integrates lots of functionality. If the ‘third device’ with greater functionality does take off, eBook readers will, more than likely, become a niche product.

I love the idea of an eBook reader especially one with an ‘always on’ 3G connection. The battery life is superb, lasting in many cases well over a week and the e-ink screens are almost essential for prolonged spells of reading. I like the idea of receiving my favourite newspaper and other magazine subscriptions directly to a device all ready for my morning commute.

However, my desire to own an eBook reader is not driven by a personal urge to carry around a library of novels. It is actually for business purposes. I could make better use of my commute by catching up on the news and reviewing work documents. Indeed, having access to meeting documents or presentations on an eBook reader whilst travelling to a meeting would be highly convenient.

It’s encouraging for eBook readers that sales of them in the USA are supposedly strong. Barnes and Noble’s Nook quickly sold out and Amazon’s Kindle is their “number one best-selling” product on Amazon.com. However, no one is sure how many eBook readers have been sold due to the secrecy of the sales figures, particularly from Amazon. Now with the arrival of tablet PCs, especially Apple’s iPad, eBook readers face stiff competition.

As a result, I fear that interest in eBook readers will be limited to two types of users; business people and extreme reading enthusiasts. If there is a big uptake in consumer demand for a ‘third device’ (i.e. something that sits inbetween a smartphone and a laptop) then I believe that the large majority of people will opt for a device that has multiple uses.

We have already seen that those who have experienced the benefits of an iPhone (and its seemingly unlimited uses) are highly interested in tablet PCs. Now that the dust has settled on the announcement of Apple’s iPad, many commentators believe its success will rely on the consumer being able to tailor the device to their own specific needs. Further to this, others are already excited at the new applications the iPad will enable. One of my favourites is to use it as a board game.

The specialist nature of eBook readers seem to be reflected in interest levels among UK consumers. Prior to Apple’s announcement of their iPad, GfK Technology research showed that interest levels in eBook readers (23%) was half that of tablet PCs (45%). Perhaps not surprisingly, interest levels for eBook readers are higher among those who had recently bought either a physical newspaper or a book.

It is my view that the success of a product is highly dependent on the problem it solves or the demand it satisfies. History has shown that those devices that satisfy numerous need states naturally succeed, limiting specialist devices to a niche audience.

NOTES

Photo courtesy of:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/johanl/ / CC BY 2.0

Research Info

*1000 online interviews were conducted by GfK NOP among a UK representative sample of internet users. The fieldwork was conducted between 15th – 19th January 2010

2010 Tech developments: keep it simple

In recent weeks, so much has been said about what 2010 will bring to the tech landscape that one can’t help but reading with a pinch of salt. For someone that works with customer opinions and observes their behaviour for a living, it becomes apparent that some of the predicted products and services, if they do make it to market, are destined to remain within that niche group of technology enthusiasts that created them in the first place.

Many of course have potential, and if implemented and marketed correctly have high chances of making it to the wider masses. That is, if they were ever intended to do so.

So – what is going to really work?

The answer is, well.. simple. Or, rather: simplicity. If given a choice, customers will always choose and glorify products and services that will offer them “more” in less time and with fewer headaches, the tools that empower them to reach a given goal with the minimum of disruption.

Luckily, optimization and simplification are recurrent themes in some of the predictions we stumbled upon:

“Third-party authentications will become the norm” (RWW). Trying to remember your password and login for the multitude of sites that request it will be a thing of the past – unless of course, you choose to be among the 46% of British internet users, 15.6 million that have the same password for most web-based accounts
Google will launch an inexpensive netbook powered by their new Chrome OS, with one goal in mind: accessing the web (IB-Times). Chrome OS is not meant to replace any of the existing operating systems (Google), and neither is it trying to do too many things; quite simply it is aimed at accessing the web, easily, and fast;
Others browsers will copy Google Chrome’s features the simplified interface, the rapid development model, the lightweight extensions, sandboxing, compiling JavaScript code;
“There are too many worthless apps and no adequate ways to find the good ones” (RWW) – this is certainly true of the i-Phone in particular, but also of the Android market. The count of apps is going up, but how do we spot the good ones?
More consumers than ever will demand the ability to easily interact fully with the mobile web on their phones;
Optimisation and stability, rather than raw speed, will acquire a position of relevance in computing. Examples have been set by Snow Leopard already. It will be a tough one as consumers will keep looking at the “higher number” (i.e. processor speed);
There will be more attempts at groundbreaking interfaces, possibly still involving touch screen technology;

Innovation extends the number and type of goals that are possible; success is then dependent on these goals being relevant and simple to achieve.

Though functionality is of paramount importance, a non-intuitive user interface will by definition reduce the number of people that will go through the trouble of learning it and using the tool in the first place.

As technology progresses, the number of options increase. The difficulty lies in how companies use those new solutions and advancements. One may choose to allocate the additional processing power available via a faster processor to run more complex operating systems, more demanding applications and fancy transition graphics in their next generation product. Another may instead choose to re-think, improve, un-clutter, optimise, speed-up.

One thing is certain: the customer will always win in the end, and they’ll win by choosing the “naturally best” fit with their way of thinking. So those innovators in the industry that really think like their customers are likely to be most successful.

NOTES

Image provided by:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/aussiegall/ / CC BY 2.0

List of pubs showing Arsenal v. Man Utd. game in 3D…

If you read our post regarding 3D TV and want to check it out yourself, here’s a list of pubs showing the game in 3D:

If you do watch the game in 3D we’d love to know what you think, just let us know in the comments.

Enjoy!

NB. List courtesy of geeks.co.uk

Promising signs for 3D TV… but not this year

GfK NOP research shows good levels of interest in 3D TV amongst adult consumers. The main barriers to adoption will eventually disappear, but are likely to stall early widespread adoption.

One of the recurring items in the numerous “predicted technology trends for 2010” lists that emerged at the start of the year was 3D TV.

The interest in 3D technology has been steadily growing over the last couple of years with various films being re-released in, or designed specifically for, 3D viewing, not least James Cameron’s epic Avatar and its accompanying high budget hype machine, which exploded the awareness of the technology with the masses and smashed box-office records.

With Sky’s live broadcast of Manchester United vs. Arsenal this weekend signalling the first live 3D sporting broadcast on TV and acting as a showpiece for Sky’s 3D service that will be available from April, it’s fair to say that 3D is now firmly entering the realm of the consumer.

Of course, for consumers to experience this revolution at home it will require the appropriate hardware. A number of companies, including Sony, ESPN and DirecTV, made 3D TV announcements at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, but whether people will be willing to spend on this technology in the near future is yet to be seen, particularly given that many consumers recently invested in high-definition sets.

That said, research*conducted by GfK NOP in January amongst a representative sample of internet users, shows that interest levels in 3DTV are relatively high, with 42% of adults expressing interest (somewhat or extremely) in buying a 3D TV.

This is not to say that interest will necessarily convert into purchase in the short term, but it does suggest there is certainly some potential; interest rises to 50% amongst males, 50% amongst those who are single and to 61% amongst those aged 16-24…offering a pretty clear indication of the target audience.

Convincing consumers…

But what of those less interested? What are the barriers which Sky and the TV manufacturers are going to have to confront to push 3D TV into the mainstream?

Just under a fifth of those not interested simply state that they don’t like the idea of 3D TV. A further 7% state that too much 3D viewing gives them a headache – fine for a one-off engaging film experience perhaps, but while the dizzying spectacle of a 3D experience within the context of a 2 hour trip to the cinema is one thing, will there really be the same desire to be immersing oneself fully in a 3D Albert Square experience with EastEnders evening after evening?

Another concern is the perceived ‘gimmicky’ nature of the proposition; while some films (such as Avatar) are uniquely suited to exploit the technology to its fullest, there is some scepticism about the benefit of routinely applying 3D to all films/ programming- particularly if focussing on the ‘wow factor’ of the technology is to the detriment of the considerations of plot or fully rounded character development. And this is before we even get to the glasses…

Ah yes, the glasses. 47% of consumers not interested in the concept state that the need to wear glasses would dissuade them from purchasing a 3D television (the biggest barrier in the research). Generally speaking, for some consumers the process of having to put on a pair of glasses will seem somewhat unnatural, as well as adding another peripheral to clutter up and lose in the sitting room. In addition, there’s also the unsettling experience of walking into your local pub and seeing a room full of football fanatics decked out like extras from the Matrix.

Of course, these barriers will inevitably disappear over time as the technology develops (and we hopefully lose the glasses), prices drop and consumers start to thinking about replacing their current HD-TV. As an example, while 39% of adults feel that there isn’t enough content to make purchasing a 3D TV worthwhile, Sky are already taking the first steps this Sunday to introduce appealing content; something which will only continue over time.

Furthermore, there is potentially huge appeal for 3D TV amongst video gamers to fully immerse themselves in a 3D environment. (This is something we hope to research over the next couple of months in more detail.)

So, all things considered, it is our opinion that 2010 will not be the year of consumer 3D TV in home. At present 3D TV seems to sit more comfortably as an ‘event’ experience (i.e. a James Cameron sci-fi opera, or a critical fixture in the sporting calendar) rather than something to enjoy on a daily basis at home – and with this limitation in mind, it’s debatable whether many consumers, outside of the early adopters or those with plenty of disposable income, will make the investment in the short term.

NOTES

*1000 online interviews were conducted by GfK NOP among a UK representative sample of internet users.

Image from…

http://www.flickr.com/photos/warrenski/ / CC BY-SA 2.0

The iPhone paves the way for a successful ‘tablet PC’ market

GfK NOP research shows that consumers familiar with the iPhone are much more interested in tablet PCs than the average UK consumer and, what’s more, they know exactly what they would use it for.

One of the hot topics at this year’s CES (Consumer Electronics Show) was tablet PCs. Microsoft showed off Windows 7 (multi-touch version) on an HP tablet and, despite Apple’s non-attendance, there was much hype around a potential ‘iPad’ (iSlate, iTablet?). Many believe that the hype will become a reality on 27 January when Apple hosts an event entitled ‘Come see our latest creation’.

What interests me most about tablet PCs is who would buy one and what they would do with it. Recent research*conducted by GfK NOP shows that interest levels in ‘tablet PCs’ for the average UK internet user are at moderate levels with 45% being somewhat or extremely interested. That may sound high, but with all research like this, sales never match intent. However, the most striking finding from this research is that levels of interest are significantly higher among iPhone users – at 75%.

Those Interested in Tablet PCs

Why such a big difference? Well, iPhone users will be familiar with features such as multi-touch screens, integrated multimedia services and, of course, the App Store. This, in itself, begins to reveal what consumers will use a tablet PC for. In a way it is obvious for an iPhone user that an iPad (let’s go with that name for now) would be a larger, more powerful iPhone, which would be a natural choice for web browsing and multimedia as well as being extremely customisable with apps. The research supports this view because of those interested in tablet PCs, 58% of iPhone users (41% UK average) said they would use it for an ‘enhanced’ web browsing experience and 75% of iPhone users (41% UK average) said they would use it as a portable multimedia player, two of the top answers.

However, web browsing and multimedia are standard features for PC, laptop or even netbook users, so will the introduction of the tablet PC enable new and different uses? Reading between the lines, Apple’s invite (pictured below), with the splashes of paint used in the imagery, might suggest that a future iPad will be a more effective platform for creative tasks. Over half of iPhone users interested in tablet PCs (51%) said they would use it for ‘mainly creative tasks like editing photos or drawing images’ compared to just 27% as a UK average. Although tasks like these are becoming more mainstream, the tablet PC, especially an Apple one, could accelerate that trend.

Potential effect of tablet PCs

For some time now, people have been calling for Apple to release a netbook, mainly because many wanted a portable Apple experience with web browsing and multimedia capabilities. In a way the iPhone has filled this void but a future iPad could take the experience one step further and, as we’ve seen, iPhone users agree. The obvious difference is that a netbook and a tablet PC will sit at different ends of the affordability scale. Apple’s products are always at the premium end of the market and are about delivering a simple and high performance user experience. A tablet PC has the potential to meet all of those criteria without devaluing their product pricing or risking customer satisfaction as they may have done with a netbook. With this is mind, I can now see why they resisted netbooks and waited for tablet PCs despite the prolific sales netbooks received over the past few years.

Whether tablet PCs will have an effect on netbook sales is hard to tell, especially as they will (almost definitely) be at least twice the price of a netbook. One risk Apple and other PC manufacturers might face is the cannibalisation of home laptop sales. Of those interested in tablet PCs, 60% of iPhone users (48% UK average) said they would use it to replace all the tasks of their home PC or laptop. This is not as unbelievable as it first sounds given that the majority of home internet users (58%) only use their PC for basic tasks like browsing the internet.**

It’s no wonder so many people are excited about the potential of a future iPad being announced later this week. Apple have an incredible knack at educating consumers about their new products before anyone has even seen what they look like. They did the same with the iPhone; Apple let the market speculate about what it would look like and what it would do before it was even announced. The success of the iPhone has sparked consumer interest in the iPad and the same seems to be happening again. For iPhone users in particular an iPad is simply a complimentary and natural evolution of the iPhone.

So, will the tablet become as common an item on the coffee table as a magazine or a book?… We’ll have to wait and see! Roll on 27 January!

NOTES ON THE RESEARCH

*1000 online interviews were conducted by GfK NOP among a UK representative sample of internet users.

** Ofcom report, UK broadband speeds 2009, Annex 6; GfK NOP Broadband Speeds, Full Report

GfK TechTalk

Independent technology research and opinion

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